Gartner Hype Cycle for AI

🤔 puzzled by Gartner's assessment...

04 Nov 2022 | in ai

Gartner released its updated Hype Cycle for AI < 2 months ago.

I'm puzzled by generative AI nearing the Peak of Inflated Expectations, forecasting reaching the Plateau of Productivity in 2-5 years' time?

At the current pace of progress, I'd expect it to be in the "less than 2 years" category?

Same goes for Autonomous Vehicles, forecasted to reach it in more than 10 years (!) - when you have cars roaming the streets in the US with little to no human takeover already 🤔

Definition for Plateau of Productivity from Gartner:

"With the real-world benefits of the innovation demonstrated and accepted, growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the now greatly reduced levels of risk. A sharp rise in adoption begins (resembling a hockey stick when shown graphically), and penetration accelerates rapidly as a result of productive and useful value."

Can anyone clarify the rationale?

Source: Gartner